Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Why Can't BJP win 2014 Loksabha Battle?

 Post humiliating defeat in Karnataka  the lesson  for BJP or any political party is – handle your internal issues  well – Public does not support a party which fails to support its own leader.

One can count many reasons of the debacle of BJP in the state, but the main was Yeddy  who nailed  party’s coffin in the state. This is  not the first time when BJP failed to retain its forte or missed the opportunity to sustain.  Post 1998, when BJP was at its peak, the only act which its  leader have performed repeatedly is to pull legs of their own colleague. 

This is a party with difference and so all its  leaders have maximum differences with each other.  When we try to recall the success leaders of its recent past – UP - Kalyan Sinh, MP- Uma Bharti, Uttarakhand – Khandoori, Karnataka – Yeddyurappa and Babulal Marandi in Jharkhand.  There can not be any other parallel example in post emergency period of Independent India of booting out the heroes.  

This is altogether a different story that electorates do not support defectors. History of Indian Politics does not give any favourable data on the defectors. In the recent past one can analyse – Yeddyurappa, Uma Bharti,  Keshubhai and Kalyan Sinh from BJP  and Sangma first from Congress and later NCP.  Shrarad Pawar saved his career by  going back in the shelter of Congress. This gives the Congress a natural advantage to rule.
Babulal Marandi
  It  is surprising that  both the main national parties are run by the leaders who have no support base. The decisions in both the parties are taken on the basis of caste and religion. Congress scores over only because there is no dispute on the number one and number two positions, so all competition in Congress is to get close to the Gandhi family or Ahmed Patel – their money manager.  This attitude of these nation parties has given rise to parties like BSP, SP, JD, DMK etc who polarise electorates only on caste factor.

Brahmin- Thakur lobby in BJP has been very strong. This dominating lobby always tried to sideline leaders like  - Kalyan Singh, Uma Bharti, Yeddyurappa  and Narendra Modi. Opposition to Modi is more  from this lobby than Nitish Kumar or Uddhav Thakre.

The larger question the BJP has to confront is why mass leaders of the stature of Babulal Marandi, Kalyan Singh and Yeddyurappa were forced to seek their fortune outside the so-called ‘parivar'.  Even if we dismiss the caste based mentality of remote holders, it is evident that the baseless leadership in Delhi does not know how are successful teams created. Because leadership is more than embedding “Shayri” in the speech.

These leaders  of non upper caste would not have left the party  and weaken its base forever, had the party’s central leadership  not backed their upper caste rival in the state to sideline them.  BJP has slipped to fourth place in UP where it  ruled for three terms  and elected 50 MPs in the best ever performance in 1998.  Karnataka they are now at third spot and if no immediate corrective step is taken it will  be wiped out from the political history of  the state.
Only True Leader of BJP
Vajpai, Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi were the main leaders of BJP  during its building stage in 80s and 90s.  All three were good orators, but Vajpai scored  over others not because of his speech alone, but more because of the matured diplomacy.  After 2002 riots in Gujarat the whole of pseudo secular  and Brahmin Thakur lobby was demanding ouster of Modi. In the most publicised statement Vajpai said,  “Rajdharma” should be observed. No judgement whether Modi was following the same or not. Each commentator analysed this statement as per their convenience.  Modi was allowed to continue.
Compare this with recent comments of Advani on social media, blaming each and every body in the party without accepting his own share of responsibility in  messy affairs of BJP. He might have been a giant leader of in his hey days, but was never accepted as number one ahead of Vajpai.  Today’s generation finds him outdated.  He sportingly should take up the role of a mentor, his time to generate confidence in masses is gone.

 Advani still can find support from those who feel having left behind in the race of PM – a dream which is distant for BJP. The game spoilers will prefer to push forward his name and ensure that 2014 out come is not better than 2009.
Other Posts :

A Split Averted in BJP

Opposition Surrenders to Modi for Gujarat Poll.

Theories of World Economics Explained by two cows.