Factor "M" crucial for elections in next one year

Overdependence on caste and a section of votes  instead of governance was the reason of ouster of Lalu Raj in Bihar ten years ago. The same factor now, has infused hopes again in his camp. Loss this time was to Nitish Kumar  who overplayed  “muslim vote bank” to lose Mahrajgunj by-election.

This seat in 2009 was also with RJD  so there is no gain in the tally of RJD, but a year later in 2010 five legislative assembly seats out of six falling under this constituency were won by BJP-JD(U) alliance.   In 2005 Lalu and his party RJD were  more dependent on “MY (Muslim, Yadav ) factor” than governance.

Can they come together?

Muslims ditched him and power slipped in the hands of Nitish Kumar.

Overwhelming success of 2010 has fitted wrong calculations in the mind of JD(U) leader and the Chief Minister of Bihar that all the victory was only because of 15% Muslim voters. Although his governance is not as bad as was Lalu’s mismanagement. But  Modi centric propaganda to win over muslims, misfired this time.

Nitish Kumar had to clarify after by poll results  that BJP-JD(U) has not broken and would continue. This came only a day after when in Delhi he ignored Modi publically  as noted by TV news channel cameras. BJP is all set to contest coming elections under the stewardship of Narendra Modi. In such a scenario how long will the alliance last, if the bone of contention is Namo.

Political reality is that  the BJP needs Modi more than sustaining the alliance with JD(U) in Bihar.  If the alliance breaks then according to a survey carried out by India Today group JD(U) would be bigger loser than BJP. But the survey reflects public’s perception, whereas alliance depends on leader’s perception. There is no doubt that a large section of ambitious leaders in BJP still want to avoid projecting Gujarat Chief Minister to a high profile position.

They all know that BJP is passing through a transition phase like Congress passed in 1969 when Indira Gandhi sidelined group of  all senior leaders – called “ syndicate” and took charge of Congress. Later she was the focal point of Indian politics till she survived. Working style of Modi in Indian context resembles her. In less than one year time this will be clear whether Modi becomes next Indira Gandhi or V.P. Singh, who was also hyped to a popularity wave, but was the biggest failure in providing right leadership.

The only difference between the times of now and 1969 or 1988 is that the breakaway leaders then – Indira or V.P. Singh,  had many sympathizers in media where as Modi has many critics  in media ready to gun him down. This criticism is not new to him nor to readers & viewers so these commentaries will hardly shape the opinion of the voters.  Majority of the Indian are looking for a leader who can take  decision on its own rather waiting for a remote to get pressed. This is the advantage Modi.

He can also be next Advani who was projected thrice by his party – 1995, 2004  and 2009 to have a consistent record of putting party on opposition benches. Yet he has ambition to get projected fourth time. What ever it may be “M” factor is crucial in the elections whether it is Muslim vote bank or Modi. Outcome this factor is unpredictable.

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Will Goa be Second Time Lucky for Modi?

Goa is likely to be second time lucky for Narendra Modi. He may or may not be declared prime ministerial candidate there, but party worker’s trust on him would be stamped.  Three day BJP national executive meeting will begin on 7th  and at the end of third day L.K. Advani’s dreams of becoming PM of the country one will meet the same fete as were the dream of former Chief Minister of Gujarat Keshubhai’s in the year 2002.

Shivraj and Modi

The mood and support of Goan BJP workers can be judged from their demand to   hold a public meeting even in the rains because they want to hear ‘Modi ji’ speak. They are prepared to come with umbrellas. Their eagerness to hear his vision for party for 2014 gives similar reply party workers gave to Vajpai eleven years ago.

When  last BJP national executive meeting was hosted by Goa in the summer of 2002, there was clamour for Modi’s head both within the party and outside it. Post Godhra riots were the major ” masala”  for 24 x 7 news channels. The meeting however turned the swing in the BJP in Modi’s favour after then prime minister Atal Behari Vajpayee had no choice but to  back the Gujarat chief minister. Keshbhai who was waiting in wings to be crowned again had to seek VRS.

Modi's name as campaign committee chief may be announced here sidelining the objections of L.K. Advani et al.  Modi’s name for this position was first mooted by Nitin Gadkari towards the

L.K. Advani on the verse of Retirement

end of his tenure as party president.  The claim was strengthened after victory in the Gujarat assembly elections.

However, not to give full credit to Modi and to keep the leadership debate open Advani camp is insisting to have  separate election management committee set up under  different persons to oversee the assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi. Modi can head campaign committee for the Lok Sabha election next year.

To garner support of RSS headquarter he praised MP Chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and called him a better administrator than Narendra Modi. Shivraj Singh is  a low profile leader close to  RSS leadership.  He is working more under the guidance of Nagpur and enjoys good relationship with VHP. He has pushed the Cow Slaughter Bill in Madhya Pradesh, introduced surya namaskar in schools and encouraged the singing of vande mataram in government offices.

This is an irony that JD(U) and Nitish Kumar also find him more secular than Modi who is in the hit list of VHP, under whose rule many RSS and VHP leaders are put behind the bars and average per capita income of muslim population in Gujarat has grown more than hindu population.

This political riddle can be understood only if we can understand why did UPA government decided to vote against Sri Lanka in United Nations knowing well who killed their known leader Rajiv Gandhi  or if we can explain why responsibility of 1984 anti Sikh riots should not be fixed with the then government in power.

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