Overdependence on caste and a section of votes instead of governance was the reason of
ouster of Lalu Raj in Bihar ten years ago. The same factor now, has infused
hopes again in his camp. Loss this time was to Nitish Kumar who overplayed “muslim vote bank” to lose Mahrajgunj
by-election.
This seat in 2009 was also with RJD
so there is no gain in the tally of RJD, but a year later in 2010 five
legislative assembly seats out of six falling under this constituency were won
by BJP-JD(U) alliance. In 2005 Lalu and
his party RJD were more dependent on “MY
(Muslim, Yadav ) factor” than governance.
Muslims ditched him and power slipped
in the hands of Nitish Kumar.
 |
| Can they come together? |
Overwhelming success of 2010 has fitted wrong calculations in the mind of
JD(U) leader and the Chief Minister of Bihar that all the victory was only
because of 15% Muslim voters. Although his governance is not as bad as was
Lalu’s mismanagement. But Modi centric
propaganda to win over muslims, misfired this time.
Nitish Kumar had to clarify after by poll results that BJP-JD(U) has not broken and would
continue. This came only a day after when in Delhi he ignored Modi
publically as noted by TV news channel
cameras. BJP is all set to contest coming elections under the stewardship of
Narendra Modi. In such a scenario how long will the alliance last, if the bone
of contention is Namo.
Political reality is that the BJP
needs Modi more than sustaining the alliance with JD(U) in Bihar. If the alliance breaks then according to a
survey carried out by India Today group JD(U) would be bigger loser than BJP.
But the survey reflects public’s perception, whereas alliance depends on
leader’s perception. There is no doubt that a large section of ambitious
leaders in BJP still want to avoid projecting Gujarat Chief Minister to a high
profile position.
They all know that BJP is passing through a transition phase like Congress
passed in 1969 when Indira Gandhi sidelined group of all senior leaders – called “ syndicate” and
took charge of Congress. Later she was the focal point of Indian politics till
she survived. Working style of Modi in Indian context resembles her. In less
than one year time this will be clear whether Modi becomes next Indira Gandhi
or V.P. Singh, who was also hyped to a popularity wave, but was the biggest
failure in providing right leadership.
The only difference between the times of now and 1969 or 1988 is that the breakaway
leaders then – Indira or V.P. Singh, had
many sympathizers in media where as Modi has many critics in media ready to gun him down. This criticism
is not new to him nor to readers & viewers so these commentaries will
hardly shape the opinion of the voters. Majority of the Indian are looking for a
leader who can take decision on its own
rather waiting for a remote to get pressed. This is the advantage Modi.
He can also be next Advani who was projected thrice by his party – 1995,
2004 and 2009 to have a consistent record
of putting party on opposition benches. Yet he has ambition to get projected
fourth time. What ever it may be “M” factor is crucial in the elections whether
it is Muslim vote bank or Modi. Outcome this factor is unpredictable.
Other Posts : -
No comments:
Post a Comment