Thursday, June 6, 2013

Factor "M" crucial for elections in next one year

Overdependence on caste and a section of votes  instead of governance was the reason of ouster of Lalu Raj in Bihar ten years ago. The same factor now, has infused hopes again in his camp. Loss this time was to Nitish Kumar  who overplayed  “muslim vote bank” to lose Mahrajgunj by-election.

This seat in 2009 was also with RJD  so there is no gain in the tally of RJD, but a year later in 2010 five legislative assembly seats out of six falling under this constituency were won by BJP-JD(U) alliance.   In 2005 Lalu and his party RJD were  more dependent on “MY (Muslim, Yadav ) factor” than governance.
Can they come together?
Muslims ditched him and power slipped in the hands of Nitish Kumar.

Overwhelming success of 2010 has fitted wrong calculations in the mind of JD(U) leader and the Chief Minister of Bihar that all the victory was only because of 15% Muslim voters. Although his governance is not as bad as was Lalu’s mismanagement. But  Modi centric propaganda to win over muslims, misfired this time.

Nitish Kumar had to clarify after by poll results  that BJP-JD(U) has not broken and would continue. This came only a day after when in Delhi he ignored Modi publically  as noted by TV news channel cameras. BJP is all set to contest coming elections under the stewardship of Narendra Modi. In such a scenario how long will the alliance last, if the bone of contention is Namo.

Political reality is that  the BJP needs Modi more than sustaining the alliance with JD(U) in Bihar.  If the alliance breaks then according to a survey carried out by India Today group JD(U) would be bigger loser than BJP. But the survey reflects public’s perception, whereas alliance depends on leader’s perception. There is no doubt that a large section of ambitious leaders in BJP still want to avoid projecting Gujarat Chief Minister to a high profile position.

They all know that BJP is passing through a transition phase like Congress passed in 1969 when Indira Gandhi sidelined group of  all senior leaders – called “ syndicate” and took charge of Congress. Later she was the focal point of Indian politics till she survived. Working style of Modi in Indian context resembles her. In less than one year time this will be clear whether Modi becomes next Indira Gandhi or V.P. Singh, who was also hyped to a popularity wave, but was the biggest failure in providing right leadership.

The only difference between the times of now and 1969 or 1988 is that the breakaway leaders then – Indira or V.P. Singh,  had many sympathizers in media where as Modi has many critics  in media ready to gun him down. This criticism is not new to him nor to readers & viewers so these commentaries will hardly shape the opinion of the voters.  Majority of the Indian are looking for a leader who can take  decision on its own rather waiting for a remote to get pressed. This is the advantage Modi.

He can also be next Advani who was projected thrice by his party – 1995, 2004  and 2009 to have a consistent record of putting party on opposition benches. Yet he has ambition to get projected fourth time. What ever it may be “M” factor is crucial in the elections whether it is Muslim vote bank or Modi. Outcome this factor is unpredictable.

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